Premier Division (Ireland) · Fri, Sep 11 · 18:45 · Waterford FC vs Dundalk FC
Likeliest: Dundalk FC win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Waterford FC36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Dundalk FC38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 65% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Waterford FC
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Aug 28 · at St. Patrick's Athletic (A)2-0
- Aug 21 · at Sligo Rovers (A)0-0
- Aug 9 · v Bohemian FC (H)3-1
- Aug 2 · v Shelbourne (H)1-0
- Jul 25 · at Galway United (A)0-0
Dundalk FC
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Aug 28 · at Drogheda United (A)3-2
- Aug 21 · v Galway United (H)1-2
- Aug 7 · at Shamrock Rovers (A)2-3
- Jul 31 · v Sligo Rovers (H)1-1
- Jul 24 · at St. Patrick's Athletic (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Waterford FC | Dundalk FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-1 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.