Premier Division (Ireland) · Mon, Oct 19 · 18:45 · Waterford FC vs Galway United
Likeliest: Waterford FC win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Waterford FC45%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Galway United31%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 61% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 62% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Waterford FC
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 16 · at Bohemian FC (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · at Shamrock Rovers (A)2-3
- Sep 14 · v Derry City (H)2-2
- Sep 11 · v Dundalk FC (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at St. Patrick's Athletic (A)2-0
Galway United
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 16 · v Shamrock Rovers (H)2-0
- Sep 25 · v Shelbourne (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Derry City (A)0-1
- Sep 14 · at Sligo Rovers (A)3-1
- Sep 11 · v Bohemian FC (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Waterford FC | Galway United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-1 | 2-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.