Championship (England) · Mon, Apr 6 · 14:00 · Watford vs Charlton Athletic
Likeliest: Watford win · 44%
A 31% away win. The market says 24%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford44%49%−5
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Charlton Athletic31%24%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 46% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 76% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 51% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 67% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Apr 3 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-2
- Mar 21 · v Leicester City (H)0-0
- Mar 17 · v Wrexham (H)3-1
- Mar 14 · at Stoke City (A)1-3
- Mar 10 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-1
Charlton Athletic
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Apr 3 · v Bristol City (H)1-2
- Mar 21 · v Norwich City (H)0-1
- Mar 14 · at Oxford United (A)1-1
- Mar 11 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-0
- Mar 7 · v Birmingham City (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Watford | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.