Championship (England) · Sat, May 2 · 11:30 · Watford vs Coventry City
Likeliest: Coventry City win · 51%
A 51% away win. The market says 46%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford24%29%−6
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+1
OursMarket
Coventry City51%46%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 61% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 63% | −14 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 54% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 71% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 39% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Apr 25 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-5
- Apr 21 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-3
- Apr 18 · v Sheffield United (H)0-2
- Apr 11 · at Oxford United (A)0-2
- Apr 6 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
Coventry City
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Apr 26 · v Wrexham (H)3-1
- Apr 21 · v Portsmouth (H)5-1
- Apr 17 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)0-0
- Apr 6 · at Hull City (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Watford | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.