EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 14:00 · Watford vs Crawley Town
Likeliest: Watford win · 42%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford42%74%−32
OursMarket
Draw27%17%+10
OursMarket
Crawley Town31%9%+22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 62% | −15 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 48% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 91% | −22 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 26% | +32 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 83% | −10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 89% | −32 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
LossLossLossLossLoss
- May 2 · v Coventry City (H)0-4
- Apr 25 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-5
- Apr 21 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-3
- Apr 18 · v Sheffield United (H)0-2
- Apr 11 · at Oxford United (A)0-2
Crawley Town
LossDrawDrawDrawWin
- Aug 3 · at York City (A)2-0
- May 2 · v Salford City (H)0-0
- Apr 25 · at Accrington Stanley (A)3-3
- Apr 18 · v Shrewsbury Town (H)0-0
- Apr 11 · at Bristol Rovers (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Watford | Crawley Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.