Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 21 · 15:00 · Watford vs Derby County
Likeliest: Watford win · 47%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford47%52%−5
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Derby County28%21%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 79% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 48% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 71% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Feb 14 · at Preston North End (A)2-2
- Feb 7 · at Southampton (A)0-1
- Feb 3 · at Hull City (A)0-0
- Jan 31 · v Swansea City (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-1
Derby County
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Feb 14 · v Swansea City (H)2-0
- Feb 7 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-2
- Jan 30 · at Bristol City (A)5-0
- Jan 23 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-1
- Jan 20 · at Charlton Athletic (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Watford | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.