Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 3 · 19:45 · Watford vs Lincoln City
Likeliest: Watford win · 41%
Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 2–1 11% · 1–0 10%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Lincoln City31%32%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 31 · at Norwich City (A)2-3
- Oct 24 · at Wolverhampton (A)0-1
- Oct 17 · v Charlton Athletic (H)2-0
- Oct 13 · at Cardiff City (A)1-5
- Oct 10 · v Burnley (H)0-4
Lincoln City
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 31 · v Birmingham City (H)1-3
- Oct 24 · v Burnley (H)4-1
- Oct 17 · at Millwall (A)2-2
- Oct 14 · v West Ham United (H)0-6
- Oct 10 · at Sheffield United (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Watford | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-0-8 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.