Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 8 · 12:30 · Watford vs Millwall
Likeliest: Watford win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Watford45%——
OursMarket
Draw26%——
OursMarket
Millwall29%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Mar 1 · at Stoke City (A)0-0
- Feb 23 · v Luton Town (H)2-0
- Feb 15 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-0
- Feb 11 · v Leeds United (H)0-4
- Feb 8 · at Sunderland (A)2-2
Millwall
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Mar 4 · v Bristol City (H)0-2
- Mar 1 · at Crystal Palace (A)1-3
- Feb 22 · at Derby County (A)1-0
- Feb 18 · at Preston North End (A)1-1
- Feb 15 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Watford | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-0-4 | 4-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.