Championship (England) · Sat, Jan 17 · 12:30 · Watford vs Millwall
Likeliest: Watford win · 56%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford56%46%+10
OursMarket
Draw22%28%−5
OursMarket
Millwall22%26%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 46% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 50% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 54% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 64% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Jan 10 · at Bristol City (A)1-5
- Jan 1 · v Birmingham City (H)3-0
- Dec 29 · at Norwich City (A)1-0
- Dec 26 · at Leicester City (A)2-1
- Dec 20 · v Stoke City (H)1-0
Millwall
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Jan 10 · at Burnley (A)1-5
- Jan 4 · v Swansea City (H)2-1
- Jan 1 · at Southampton (A)0-0
- Dec 29 · v Bristol City (H)2-1
- Dec 26 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Watford | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.