Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 6 · 12:30 · Watford vs Norwich City
Likeliest: Watford win · 44%
We make it 62% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford44%51%−7
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+3
OursMarket
Norwich City28%24%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 52% | −14 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 76% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 49% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 68% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
DrawDrawWinDrawLoss
- Dec 1 · at Birmingham City (A)1-2
- Nov 25 · v Preston North End (H)1-1
- Nov 22 · at Derby County (A)3-2
- Nov 7 · v Bristol City (H)1-1
- Nov 4 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-1
Norwich City
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Nov 29 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)3-1
- Nov 25 · v Oxford United (H)1-1
- Nov 22 · at Birmingham City (A)1-4
- Nov 8 · v Leicester City (H)1-2
- Nov 5 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Watford | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.