EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Aug 25 · 18:45 · Watford vs Peterborough United
Likeliest: Watford win · 46%
We make it 59% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford46%61%−14
OursMarket
Draw26%22%+4
OursMarket
Peterborough United28%17%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 60% | −19 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 57% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 83% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 39% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 78% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 78% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Aug 22 · at Wrexham (A)1-1
- Aug 16 · v Southampton (H)2-1
- Aug 8 · v Crawley Town (H)1-0
- May 2 · v Coventry City (H)0-4
- Apr 25 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-5
Peterborough United
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Aug 22 · v Mansfield Town (H)2-1
- Aug 15 · at Bradford City (A)0-2
- Aug 8 · at Bristol Rovers (A)1-0
- May 2 · v Doncaster Rovers (H)1-3
- Apr 28 · v Mansfield Town (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Watford | Peterborough United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.