Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 25 · 19:45 · Watford vs Preston North End
Likeliest: Watford win · 39%
A 35% away win. The market says 24%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford39%48%−9
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−3
OursMarket
Preston North End35%24%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 44% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 76% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 52% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 67% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Nov 22 · at Derby County (A)3-2
- Nov 7 · v Bristol City (H)1-1
- Nov 4 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-1
- Nov 1 · v Middlesbrough (H)3-0
- Oct 25 · at Coventry City (A)1-3
Preston North End
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Nov 21 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-2
- Nov 8 · at Millwall (A)1-1
- Nov 5 · v Swansea City (H)2-1
- Nov 1 · at Southampton (A)2-0
- Oct 24 · v Sheffield United (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Watford | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.