Championship (England) · Tue, Sep 8 · 18:45 · Watford vs Preston North End
Likeliest: Watford win · 42%
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford42%44%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Preston North End30%28%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 55% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 61% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 5 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-1
- Sep 1 · at Swansea City (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · v West Ham United (H)1-1
- Aug 25 · v Peterborough United (H)1-5
- Aug 22 · at Wrexham (A)1-1
Preston North End
LossLossLossLossWin
- Sep 5 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)2-1
- Sep 1 · v Bristol City (H)1-3
- Aug 29 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-1
- Aug 26 · v Everton (H)0-4
- Aug 22 · v Wolverhampton (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Watford | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.