Championship (England) · Tue, Dec 9 · 19:45 · Watford vs Sheffield Wednesday
Likeliest: Watford win · 49%
We make it 63% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford49%62%−13
OursMarket
Draw28%22%+6
OursMarket
Sheffield Wednesday23%16%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 54% | −17 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 84% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 38% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 78% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 79% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Dec 6 · v Norwich City (H)3-2
- Dec 1 · at Birmingham City (A)1-2
- Nov 25 · v Preston North End (H)1-1
- Nov 22 · at Derby County (A)3-2
- Nov 7 · v Bristol City (H)1-1
Sheffield Wednesday
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Nov 29 · v Preston North End (H)2-3
- Nov 26 · at Millwall (A)0-1
- Nov 23 · v Sheffield United (H)0-3
- Nov 8 · at Southampton (A)1-3
- Nov 5 · v Norwich City (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Watford | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 0-2-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.