Championship (England) · Sun, Aug 16 · 12:30 · Watford vs Southampton
Likeliest: Southampton win · 53%
A 53% away win. The market says 46%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford27%28%−1
OursMarket
Draw20%27%−7
OursMarket
Southampton53%46%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 54% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 73% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 38% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
LossLossLossLossWin
- Aug 8 · v Crawley Town (H)1-0
- May 2 · v Coventry City (H)0-4
- Apr 25 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-5
- Apr 21 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-3
- Apr 18 · v Sheffield United (H)0-2
Southampton
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Aug 8 · at Colchester United (A)2-0
- May 12 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-1
- May 9 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-0
- May 2 · at Preston North End (A)3-1
- Apr 28 · v Ipswich Town (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Watford | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.