Championship (England) · Sat, Dec 20 · 15:00 · Watford vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Watford win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford45%44%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Stoke City29%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Dec 13 · at Wrexham (A)2-2
- Dec 9 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-1
- Dec 6 · v Norwich City (H)3-2
- Dec 1 · at Birmingham City (A)1-2
- Nov 25 · v Preston North End (H)1-1
Stoke City
WinLossLossLossWin
- Dec 13 · v Swansea City (H)2-1
- Dec 10 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-1
- Dec 6 · at Sheffield United (A)0-4
- Nov 29 · v Hull City (H)1-2
- Nov 25 · v Charlton Athletic (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Watford | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.