Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:00 · Watford vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Watford win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford39%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Stoke City31%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 8 · v Preston North End (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-1
- Sep 1 · at Swansea City (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · v West Ham United (H)1-1
- Aug 25 · v Peterborough United (H)1-5
Stoke City
DrawLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 8 · at Cardiff City (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Charlton Athletic (H)4-0
- Sep 1 · v Norwich City (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Wolverhampton (A)1-4
- Aug 25 · v Hull City (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Watford | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 0-1-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.