Championship (England) · Wed, Mar 12 · 19:45 · Watford vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Watford win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Watford49%——
OursMarket
Draw27%——
OursMarket
Swansea City24%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Mar 8 · v Millwall (H)1-2
- Mar 1 · at Stoke City (A)0-0
- Feb 23 · v Luton Town (H)2-0
- Feb 15 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-0
- Feb 11 · v Leeds United (H)0-4
Swansea City
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Mar 8 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-0
- Mar 4 · at Preston North End (A)0-0
- Feb 22 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)3-0
- Feb 15 · at Stoke City (A)1-3
- Feb 12 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Watford | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-0-5 | 1-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.