Championship (England) · Sat, Jan 31 · 15:00 · Watford vs Swansea City
Likeliest: Watford win · 52%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford52%44%+7
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Swansea City24%27%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 45% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 56% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 62% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Jan 24 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-1
- Jan 21 · v Portsmouth (H)1-1
- Jan 17 · v Millwall (H)0-2
- Jan 10 · at Bristol City (A)1-5
- Jan 1 · v Birmingham City (H)3-0
Swansea City
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- Jan 24 · at Hull City (A)1-2
- Jan 20 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)3-1
- Jan 17 · v Birmingham City (H)1-1
- Jan 11 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)2-2
- Jan 4 · at Millwall (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Watford | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.