Championship (England) · Sat, Aug 29 · 14:00 · Watford vs West Ham United
Likeliest: Watford win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 24%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford38%24%+13
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+2
OursMarket
West Ham United36%51%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 59% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 59% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 49% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 76% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 32% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Aug 25 · v Peterborough United (H)1-5
- Aug 22 · at Wrexham (A)1-1
- Aug 16 · v Southampton (H)2-1
- Aug 8 · v Crawley Town (H)1-0
- May 2 · v Coventry City (H)0-4
West Ham United
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Aug 25 · at Southampton (A)4-1
- Aug 22 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-2
- Aug 16 · at Burnley (A)2-2
- Aug 8 · v Portsmouth (H)3-1
- May 24 · v Leeds United (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Watford | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.