Championship (England) · Tue, Mar 17 · 19:45 · Watford vs Wrexham
Likeliest: Watford win · 42%
We make it 54% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Watford42%42%0
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Wrexham33%30%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 47% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 58% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Watford
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Mar 14 · at Stoke City (A)1-3
- Mar 10 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-1
- Feb 27 · at Bristol City (A)2-1
- Feb 24 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-2
- Feb 21 · v Derby County (H)2-0
Wrexham
WinWinWinLossWin
- Mar 13 · v Swansea City (H)2-0
- Mar 10 · v Hull City (H)1-2
- Feb 28 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-0
- Feb 24 · v Portsmouth (H)2-1
- Feb 21 · v Ipswich Town (H)5-3
| Last 10 games | Watford | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.