FA Cup (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Wealdstone vs Worthing FC
Likeliest: Worthing FC win · 37%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wealdstone36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%26%+1
OursMarket
Worthing FC37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 62% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 2.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wealdstone
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Yeovil Town (H)0-6
- Oct 3 · at Barrow AFC (A)1-2
- Sep 29 · at Forest Green Rovers (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Gateshead (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · at Tamworth (A)1-2
Worthing FC
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Solihull Moors (H)5-0
- Oct 3 · at Gateshead (A)2-1
- Sep 29 · at Yeovil Town (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v FC Halifax Town (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Hartlepool United (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Wealdstone | Worthing FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.