National League (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Wealdstone vs Yeovil Town
Likeliest: Wealdstone win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wealdstone38%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Yeovil Town35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wealdstone
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · at Barrow AFC (A)1-2
- Sep 29 · at Forest Green Rovers (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Gateshead (H)4-0
- Sep 19 · at Tamworth (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · v FC Halifax Town (H)0-1
Yeovil Town
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 3 · v Boston United (H)6-0
- Sep 29 · v Worthing FC (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Kidderminster Harriers (A)1-0
- Sep 18 · v Solihull Moors (H)4-1
- Sep 15 · at Aldershot Town (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Wealdstone | Yeovil Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.