A-League Men (Australia) · Sun, Oct 25 · 02:00 · Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners
Likeliest: Wellington Phoenix win · 53%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wellington Phoenix53%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Central Coast Mariners22%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wellington Phoenix
WinLossWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Melbourne Victory (H)2-1
- Apr 24 · at Macarthur (A)0-4
- Apr 18 · v Western Sydney Wanderers (H)2-1
- Apr 12 · at Melbourne City (A)0-2
- Apr 5 · at Melbourne Victory (A)1-0
Central Coast Mariners
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Newcastle Jets (H)2-2
- Apr 25 · at Newcastle Jets (A)0-4
- Apr 19 · at Auckland (A)1-0
- Apr 10 · v Brisbane Roar (H)2-2
- Apr 7 · at Melbourne City (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Wellington Phoenix | Central Coast Mariners |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.