A-League Men (Australia) · Sun, Oct 18 · 02:00 · Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
Likeliest: Melbourne Victory win · 43%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Wellington Phoenix30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+2
OursMarket
Melbourne Victory43%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Wellington Phoenix
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Apr 24 · at Macarthur (A)0-4
- Apr 18 · v Western Sydney Wanderers (H)2-1
- Apr 12 · at Melbourne City (A)0-2
- Apr 5 · at Melbourne Victory (A)1-0
- Mar 21 · at Brisbane Roar (A)2-1
Melbourne Victory
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 14 · v FC Seoul (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · at Thể Công - Viettel (A)1-1
- May 2 · v Sydney (H)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Western Sydney Wanderers (A)2-0
- Apr 17 · v Newcastle Jets (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Wellington Phoenix | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.