Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 16 · 13:30 · Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Werder Bremen28%28%−1
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund50%48%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 67% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 68% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 37% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Werder Bremen
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- May 9 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)0-1
- May 2 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-3
- Apr 26 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · v Hamburger SV (H)3-1
- Apr 12 · at FC Köln (A)1-3
Borussia Dortmund
LossLossWinLossWin
- May 8 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-2
- May 3 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-1
- Apr 26 · v SC Freiburg (H)4-0
- Apr 18 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-2
- Apr 11 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Werder Bremen | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Werder Bremen form·Borussia Dortmund form·Head-to-head record