Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Jan 31 · 14:30 · Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Likeliest: Werder Bremen win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 40%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Werder Bremen47%40%+7
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−2
OursMarket
Borussia Mönchengladbach29%33%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 67% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 60% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 55% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Werder Bremen
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Jan 27 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-1
- Jan 16 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-3
- Jan 13 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-3
- Dec 20 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Jan 25 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)0-3
- Jan 17 · at Hamburger SV (A)0-0
- Jan 14 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-5
- Jan 11 · v FC Augsburg (H)4-0
- Dec 19 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Werder Bremen | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.