Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 2 · 13:30 · Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg
Likeliest: Werder Bremen win · 42%
A 34% away win. The market says 27%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Werder Bremen42%48%−6
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
FC Augsburg34%27%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 63% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 73% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 64% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Werder Bremen
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Apr 26 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · v Hamburger SV (H)3-1
- Apr 12 · at FC Köln (A)1-3
- Apr 4 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-2
- Mar 21 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-0
FC Augsburg
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Apr 25 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-1
- Apr 18 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)2-1
- Apr 10 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-2
- Apr 4 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-1
- Mar 22 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-5
| Last 10 games | Werder Bremen | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.