Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Nov 29 · 14:30 · Werder Bremen vs FC Köln
Likeliest: FC Köln win · 39%
We make it 73% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 61%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Werder Bremen39%42%−3
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
FC Köln39%32%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 61% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 68% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 56% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Werder Bremen
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Nov 23 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-2
- Nov 7 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)2-1
- Nov 1 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-1
- Oct 24 · v FC Union Berlin (H)1-0
- Oct 18 · at Heidenheim (A)2-2
FC Köln
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Nov 22 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-4
- Nov 8 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)1-3
- Nov 2 · v Hamburger SV (H)4-1
- Oct 29 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-4
- Oct 25 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Werder Bremen | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.