Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Mar 15 · 14:30 · Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05
Likeliest: Werder Bremen win · 49%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Werder Bremen49%43%+6
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
FSV Mainz 0528%30%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 54% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 58% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 57% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 59% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Werder Bremen
LossLossLossWinWin
- Mar 8 · at FC Union Berlin (A)4-1
- Feb 28 · v Heidenheim (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · at St. Pauli (A)1-2
- Feb 14 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-3
- Feb 7 · at SC Freiburg (A)0-1
FSV Mainz 05
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Mar 12 · at Sigma Olomouc (A)0-0
- Mar 7 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-2
- Feb 28 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-1
- Feb 20 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-1
- Feb 13 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Werder Bremen | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.