Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 18 · 13:30 · Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV
Likeliest: Hamburger SV win · 40%
A 40% away win. The market says 25%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Werder Bremen35%48%−13
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−2
OursMarket
Hamburger SV40%25%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 75% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 52% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 66% | −19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Werder Bremen
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Apr 12 · at FC Köln (A)1-3
- Apr 4 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-2
- Mar 21 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-0
- Mar 15 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)0-2
- Mar 8 · at FC Union Berlin (A)4-1
Hamburger SV
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Apr 12 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-4
- Apr 4 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
- Mar 14 · v FC Köln (H)1-1
- Mar 7 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Werder Bremen | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.