Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Feb 28 · 14:30 · Werder Bremen vs Heidenheim
Likeliest: Werder Bremen win · 50%
A 28% away win. The market says 21%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Werder Bremen50%56%−6
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Heidenheim28%21%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 58% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 79% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 44% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 73% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Werder Bremen
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Feb 22 · at St. Pauli (A)1-2
- Feb 14 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-3
- Feb 7 · at SC Freiburg (A)0-1
- Jan 31 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)1-1
- Jan 27 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)0-2
Heidenheim
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Feb 22 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-3
- Feb 15 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-1
- Feb 7 · v Hamburger SV (H)0-2
- Feb 1 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
- Jan 24 · v RB Leipzig (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Werder Bremen | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.