Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 4 · 13:30 · Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 37%
A 37% home win. The market says 26%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Werder Bremen37%26%+11
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
RB Leipzig37%49%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 64% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 51% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 74% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 35% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Werder Bremen
LossWinWinLossWin
- Mar 21 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-0
- Mar 15 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)0-2
- Mar 8 · at FC Union Berlin (A)4-1
- Feb 28 · v Heidenheim (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · at St. Pauli (A)1-2
RB Leipzig
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Mar 20 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)5-0
- Mar 15 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-1
- Mar 1 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-1
- Feb 21 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Werder Bremen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.