Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Dec 14 · 18:30 · Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: Werder Bremen win · 44%
A 44% home win. The market says 33%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Werder Bremen44%33%+12
OursMarket
Draw25%25%−1
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart31%42%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 58% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 67% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 44% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Werder Bremen
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Dec 7 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-3
- Nov 29 · v FC Köln (H)1-1
- Nov 23 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-2
- Nov 7 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)2-1
- Nov 1 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-1
VfB Stuttgart
WinLossWinLossWin
- Dec 11 · v Maccabi Tel Aviv (H)4-1
- Dec 6 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-5
- Dec 3 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)2-0
- Nov 30 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-2
- Nov 27 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)4-0
| Last 10 games | Werder Bremen | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.