Championship (England) · Wed, Nov 26 · 20:00 · West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City
Likeliest: West Bromwich Albion win · 41%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Bromwich Albion41%34%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−4
OursMarket
Birmingham City33%35%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 41% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 66% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 69% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 50% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Bromwich Albion
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Nov 22 · at Coventry City (A)2-3
- Nov 8 · v Oxford United (H)2-1
- Nov 4 · at Charlton Athletic (A)0-1
- Nov 1 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)0-0
- Oct 25 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-1
Birmingham City
LossWinWinLossWin
- Nov 22 · v Norwich City (H)4-1
- Nov 8 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-2
- Nov 4 · v Millwall (H)4-0
- Nov 1 · v Portsmouth (H)4-0
- Oct 25 · at Bristol City (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | West Bromwich Albion | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
West Bromwich Albion form·Birmingham City form·Head-to-head record