Championship (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:30 · West Bromwich Albion vs Birmingham City
Likeliest: West Bromwich Albion win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Bromwich Albion39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Birmingham City32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Bromwich Albion
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 20 · at Wolverhampton (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-1
- Sep 9 · at Derby County (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Watford (H)1-0
- Sep 2 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
Birmingham City
DrawDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 19 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Derby County (A)2-1
- Sep 9 · at Norwich City (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Wolverhampton (H)2-2
- Sep 1 · v Southampton (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | West Bromwich Albion | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-6-0 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
West Bromwich Albion form·Birmingham City form·Head-to-head record