Championship (England) · Sun, Aug 23 · 11:00 · West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley
Likeliest: West Bromwich Albion win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 34%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Bromwich Albion61%34%+27
OursMarket
Draw21%29%−8
OursMarket
Burnley18%37%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 46% | +21 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 63% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 66% | −27 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 71% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 48% | +30 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Bromwich Albion
WinDrawLossWinWin
- Aug 15 · at Norwich City (A)2-1
- Aug 8 · at Rotherham United (A)4-1
- May 2 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-0
- Apr 21 · v Watford (H)3-0
Burnley
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Aug 16 · v West Ham United (H)2-2
- Aug 8 · v Notts County (H)1-1
- May 24 · v Wolverhampton (H)1-1
- May 24 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-1
- May 18 · at Arsenal (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | West Bromwich Albion | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 0-5-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.