Championship (England) · Fri, Jan 16 · 20:00 · West Bromwich Albion vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: West Bromwich Albion win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 38%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Bromwich Albion50%38%+11
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−4
OursMarket
Middlesbrough26%33%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 67% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 62% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 54% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Bromwich Albion
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Jan 11 · at Swansea City (A)2-2
- Jan 5 · at Leicester City (A)1-2
- Jan 1 · at Swansea City (A)0-1
- Dec 29 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)2-1
- Dec 26 · v Bristol City (H)1-2
Middlesbrough
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Jan 10 · at Fulham (A)1-3
- Jan 4 · v Southampton (H)4-0
- Jan 1 · at Derby County (A)0-1
- Dec 29 · v Hull City (H)0-1
- Dec 26 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | West Bromwich Albion | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
West Bromwich Albion form·Middlesbrough form·Head-to-head record