Championship (England) · Fri, Apr 10 · 19:00 · West Bromwich Albion vs Millwall
Likeliest: West Bromwich Albion win · 39%
A 34% away win. The market says 29%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Bromwich Albion39%42%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−2
OursMarket
Millwall34%29%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 45% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 71% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 59% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Bromwich Albion
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Apr 6 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)0-0
- Apr 3 · v Wrexham (H)2-2
- Mar 21 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
- Mar 14 · v Hull City (H)3-0
- Mar 11 · v Southampton (H)1-1
Millwall
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Apr 6 · v Norwich City (H)1-2
- Apr 3 · at Middlesbrough (A)2-1
- Mar 21 · at Ipswich Town (A)1-1
- Mar 14 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)1-2
- Mar 10 · v Derby County (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | West Bromwich Albion | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.