Championship (England) · Wed, Mar 11 · 19:45 · West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton
Likeliest: Southampton win · 38%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Bromwich Albion37%35%+3
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Southampton38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 56% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 65% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 48% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Bromwich Albion
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Mar 7 · at Sheffield United (A)1-1
- Feb 28 · at Oxford United (A)1-2
- Feb 24 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
- Feb 21 · v Coventry City (H)0-2
- Feb 14 · at Norwich City (A)1-3
Southampton
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Mar 8 · at Fulham (A)1-0
- Feb 28 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)3-1
- Feb 24 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)5-0
- Feb 21 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
- Feb 14 · v Leicester City (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | West Bromwich Albion | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
West Bromwich Albion form·Southampton form·Head-to-head record