Championship (England) · Tue, Nov 3 · 20:00 · West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton
Likeliest: Southampton win · 38%
Likely scores: 1–1 12% · 1–2 9% · 2–1 9%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Bromwich Albion35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+2
OursMarket
Southampton38%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Bromwich Albion
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 31 · at West Ham United (A)3-1
- Oct 24 · at Preston North End (A)1-1
- Oct 17 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)3-2
- Oct 13 · at Wrexham (A)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Birmingham City (H)0-1
Southampton
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 31 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)4-1
- Oct 24 · at West Ham United (A)3-2
- Oct 17 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)0-0
- Oct 14 · at Norwich City (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · v Portsmouth (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | West Bromwich Albion | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
West Bromwich Albion form·Southampton form·Head-to-head record