Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 7 · 15:01 · West Bromwich Albion vs Stoke City
Likeliest: West Bromwich Albion win · 45%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Bromwich Albion45%45%0
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−6
OursMarket
Stoke City32%26%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 43% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 49% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 74% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 63% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Bromwich Albion
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Jan 31 · at Portsmouth (A)0-3
- Jan 23 · at Derby County (A)1-1
- Jan 20 · v Norwich City (H)0-5
- Jan 16 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-3
- Jan 11 · at Swansea City (A)2-2
Stoke City
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Jan 31 · v Southampton (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · at Birmingham City (A)1-1
- Jan 21 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-2
- Jan 17 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)0-0
- Jan 10 · v Coventry City (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | West Bromwich Albion | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
West Bromwich Albion form·Stoke City form·Head-to-head record