Championship (England) · Tue, Apr 21 · 18:45 · West Bromwich Albion vs Watford
Likeliest: West Bromwich Albion win · 58%
A 58% home win. The market says 53%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Bromwich Albion58%53%+6
OursMarket
Draw22%26%−4
OursMarket
Watford20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 48% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 47% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 71% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Bromwich Albion
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Apr 18 · at Preston North End (A)2-0
- Apr 10 · v Millwall (H)0-0
- Apr 6 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)0-0
- Apr 3 · v Wrexham (H)2-2
- Mar 21 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
Watford
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Apr 18 · v Sheffield United (H)0-2
- Apr 11 · at Oxford United (A)0-2
- Apr 6 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
- Apr 3 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-2
- Mar 21 · v Leicester City (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | West Bromwich Albion | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.