Championship (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:00 · West Bromwich Albion vs Watford
Likeliest: West Bromwich Albion win · 65%
A 65% home win. The market says 51%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Bromwich Albion65%51%+14
OursMarket
Draw20%27%−7
OursMarket
Watford16%23%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 77% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 49% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 73% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 69% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Bromwich Albion
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 2 · v Charlton Athletic (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-3
- Aug 26 · at Newcastle United (A)2-3
- Aug 23 · v Burnley (H)3-1
- Aug 15 · at Norwich City (A)2-1
Watford
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 1 · at Swansea City (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · v West Ham United (H)1-1
- Aug 25 · v Peterborough United (H)1-5
- Aug 22 · at Wrexham (A)1-1
- Aug 16 · v Southampton (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | West Bromwich Albion | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.