Championship (England) · Fri, Apr 3 · 14:00 · West Bromwich Albion vs Wrexham
Likeliest: West Bromwich Albion win · 56%
A 56% home win. The market says 45%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Bromwich Albion56%45%+11
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Wrexham20%27%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 45% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 73% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 55% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 62% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Bromwich Albion
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Mar 21 · at Bristol City (A)1-0
- Mar 14 · v Hull City (H)3-0
- Mar 11 · v Southampton (H)1-1
- Mar 7 · at Sheffield United (A)1-1
- Feb 28 · at Oxford United (A)1-2
Wrexham
WinLossWinLossWin
- Mar 21 · at Sheffield United (A)2-1
- Mar 17 · at Watford (A)1-3
- Mar 13 · v Swansea City (H)2-0
- Mar 10 · v Hull City (H)1-2
- Feb 28 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | West Bromwich Albion | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.