Premier League (England) · Sat, Feb 21 · 17:30 · West Ham United vs AFC Bournemouth
Likeliest: West Ham United win · 40%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 60%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United40%34%+5
OursMarket
Draw23%30%−8
OursMarket
AFC Bournemouth38%35%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 60% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 70% | 64% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 66% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 70% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 49% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Feb 14 · at Burton Albion (A)1-0
- Feb 10 · v Manchester United (H)1-1
- Feb 7 · at Burnley (A)2-0
- Jan 31 · at Chelsea (A)2-3
- Jan 24 · v Sunderland (H)3-1
AFC Bournemouth
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Feb 10 · at Everton (A)2-1
- Feb 7 · v Aston Villa (H)1-1
- Jan 31 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)2-0
- Jan 24 · v Liverpool (H)3-2
- Jan 19 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
West Ham United form·AFC Bournemouth form·Head-to-head record