Premier League (England) · Sun, May 10 · 15:30 · West Ham United vs Arsenal
Likeliest: Arsenal win · 49%
We make it 67% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 56%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United27%17%+10
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Arsenal49%60%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 56% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 40% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 83% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 35% | 22% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- May 2 · at Brentford (A)0-3
- Apr 25 · v Everton (H)2-1
- Apr 20 · at Crystal Palace (A)0-0
- Apr 10 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)4-0
- Apr 5 · v Leeds United (H)2-2
Arsenal
LossWinDrawWinWin
- May 5 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-0
- May 2 · v Fulham (H)3-0
- Apr 29 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Newcastle United (H)1-0
- Apr 19 · at Manchester City (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.