Premier League (England) · Sun, Dec 14 · 14:00 · West Ham United vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Aston Villa win · 52%
A 52% away win. The market says 47%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United24%26%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
Aston Villa52%47%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 52% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 53% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 36% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Dec 7 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Dec 4 · at Manchester United (A)1-1
- Nov 30 · v Liverpool (H)0-2
- Nov 22 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)2-2
- Nov 8 · v Burnley (H)3-2
Aston Villa
WinWinWinWinWin
- Dec 11 · at Basel (A)2-1
- Dec 6 · v Arsenal (H)2-1
- Dec 3 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)4-3
- Nov 30 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-0
- Nov 27 · v Young Boys (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.