Premier League (England) · Tue, Dec 30 · 19:30 · West Ham United vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Likeliest: West Ham United win · 43%
A 43% home win. The market says 29%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United43%29%+14
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Brighton & Hove Albion31%45%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 60% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 55% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 71% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 40% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Dec 27 · v Fulham (H)0-1
- Dec 20 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- Dec 14 · v Aston Villa (H)2-3
- Dec 7 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)1-1
- Dec 4 · at Manchester United (A)1-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Dec 27 · at Arsenal (A)1-2
- Dec 20 · v Sunderland (H)0-0
- Dec 13 · at Liverpool (A)0-2
- Dec 7 · v West Ham United (H)1-1
- Dec 3 · v Aston Villa (H)3-4
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-0-8 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
West Ham United form·Brighton & Hove Albion form·Head-to-head record