Women's Super League (England) · Sun, Oct 4 · 13:00 · West Ham United vs Chelsea FC
Likeliest: Chelsea FC win · 83%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 83% for the away win. The market says 79%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
West Ham United5%8%−3
OursMarket
Draw12%13%−1
OursMarket
Chelsea FC83%79%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 69% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 47% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 17% | 21% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 95% | 92% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 88% | 87% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 6% | 9% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
West Ham United
LossWinLossLoss
- Sep 27 · at Manchester United (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Everton (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · v London City Lionesses (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Tottenham FC (A)1-3
Chelsea FC
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 30 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-0
- Sep 27 · v Arsenal (H)1-0
- Sep 23 · v Austria Wien (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Birmingham City W.F.C. (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · at Manchester United (A)5-0
| Last 10 games | West Ham United | Chelsea FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 6-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 25% |
| Both teams scored | — | 25% |
| Clean sheets | — | 75% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.